by MATEI GEORGESCU, PHILIP E. MOREFIELD, BRITTA G. BIERWAGEN and CHRISTOPHER P. WEAVER, Proceedings of the National Academy of the United States of America, Early Edition

Edited by Susan Hanson, Clark University, Worcester, MA, and approved January 15, 2014 (received for review November 27, 2013)

Significance

Conversion to urban landforms has consequences for regional climate and the many inhabitants living within the built environment. The purpose of our investigation was to explore hydroclimatic impacts of 21st century urban expansion across the United States and examine the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies in context of long-term global climate change. We show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, urban expansion across the United States imparts warming over large regional swaths of the country that is a significant fraction of anticipated temperature increases resulting from greenhouse gas-induced warming. Adapting to urban-induced climate change is geographically dependent, and the robust analysis that we present offers insights into optimal approaches and anticipated tradeoffs associated with varying expansion pathways.

Abstract

Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1–2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.

Matei Georgescu, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1322280111

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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